Election '08 by Gus, Part 2

As promised, my take on the second half of the Republican field...

Senator John McCain:

Pluses: Clearly has firm convictions about things. Has lots of experience. Actually has served in the military, which I don't think is necessarily a prerequisite, but which sure does beat pretending to serve (current president) or having "other priorities" (current vice-president). That makes me feel better about his ability to accurately gauge when it's necessary to send our troops into harm's way.

Minuses: I met him in 2000, when he came to Yale to speak, and I even shook his hand. He had a real energy about him, and I liked the way he projected. I rooted for him on the Republican side, even though I knew I'd vote Democrat. But 8 years later, he's getting on in years and lacks the energy he once had (or seems to anyway). If he were in for 8 years, he'd be in his 80's when he got out, and maybe it's just closed-minded of me but I think we need someone a bit younger.

Governor Mitt Romney:

Pluses: He's certainly articulate, more so than any of the others on the Republican side, I think. Being led by someone articulate is only a distant pleasant memory anymore, like budget surpluses and Pearl Jam. He has a track record of running a state in a reasonable way. A Republican governor in a pretty blue state implies a level of moderation and ability to work with people from the other party.

Minuses: He's working himself into all kinds of contortions trying to say whatever he's got to say to get himself the nomination. He's a half step away from saying "I voted for it before I voted against it." As a moderate Republican, he really had an opportunity to try and drive the Republican party to a happier middle place, and wrest some control back from the rigidly ideological wings of the party. That would be a great example of leadership.

Instead, he's chosen to pander like a stone-broke bimbo looking for a new sugardaddy. Not very inspiring.

Governor Mike Huckabee:

Pluses: I think he is genuinely a likable guy. As opposed to President Bush, who when he campaigned in 2000 was portrayed as being oh-so-likable, when in fact he seemed to me to be rather blatantly spoiled and petulant. He has a strong sense that part of what it means to be Christian is that he should be worried about and doing something about poverty, education, and the environment. Even if you yourself are not Christian, it's useful to know that his actions are intellectually consistent with his professed beliefs.

Minuses: He is way, way on the right on social issues. Currently, I don't get the sense from him that he's the kind of guy who'd try to force his positions on those issues down everyone else's throats, but if he became President, he'd be the leader of a party that is composed of a non-trivial number of people who _do_ want to force their positions down everyone else's throats, and that worries me.

Also, I really want the Democrats to win this one. And because of that, Governor Huckabee is the only potential Republican nominee who really scares me. Like all the recent elections, 40 or so of the states are going to go to the same parties they always do, so it will come down to the 10 or so swing states. He's socially conservative enough to get those social conservatives out to the polls in those states, likable enough to peel off some of the independents and moderate Republicans that I think will otherwise actually vote Democratic in this round, and when you couple those facts with a proven Democratic ability to find a way to lose against seemingly impossible odds, there's a recipe for another electoral nightmare (for me).

That's my analysis of the Republican field. Dems tomorrow...