Watching the 2008 presidential election is feeling for me a lot like watching the 2008 Cardinals playing the Pirates, up by 9 runs going into the 7th inning. The team I'm rooting for is playing a team that's obviously weaker, and has fallen behind by a huge margin late in the game. In theory, all that should happen is that the game plays itself out and my team wins handily.
Thing is, the 2008 Cardinals proceeded to collapse in that game, surrendering 10 runs over the last 3 innings to find their way to an improbable loss.
So the question that keeps me up at nights is: are the 2008 Democrats like the 2008 Cardinals? It's a legitimate worry, because both the 2004 and the 2000 Dems were.
I figure that Obama needs a 7-9 point edge going into the election because 3 points will disappear due to the Bradley effect, as some people at the end decide that they just can't handle voting for a black man, and then another 3 points will disappear due to voter intimidation and improper elimination of voters from the rolls, as part of the typical Republican suppress-the-vote strategy.
On a different note, it's been sad to watch John McCain become so many of the things he previously has denounced. I mean, I don't feel sorry for him personally; he made his decisions. But on at least some issues he used to be moderate and reasonable, and it's always tragic when a moderate and reasonable politician passes from the scene. Once upon a time, social conservatives hated him because he was willing to make a compromise on supreme court justices, and because he labelled the extreme social conservative right as "agents of intolerance"; now, he has Sarah Palin as his running mate. That's Sarah if-you-get-raped-by-a-relative-I'll-make-you-keep-the-baby-AND-make-you-pay-for-your-rape-kit Palin. Once upon a time, Club-for-Growth conservatives hated him because he opposed the Bush tax cuts. Now, he'll make them permanent at a time we're bleeding red ink and mortgaging the future of the next few generations. Once upon a time, he wanted to run a responsible campaign, and now he's caved to whatever consultants told him he should go totally negative.
I can't remember if I've said this before, and I'm too lazy to read my own posts, but I met John McCain in 2000 when he was running. He came and spoke at Yale, and I hung around after to shake hands and introduce myself. He gave an interesting talk, and seemed energetic and a reasonable guy. I wouldn't have voted for him over Gore, but I at least respected him then. And I was irritated that he got waxed by Bush and Rove and the hardcore Republican attack machine.
I guess over the last 8 years he realized that this would be his last chance, and he wanted the nomination so bad that he made every compromise he felt he needed to in order to get it. That's what happens when you want it too much. And the irony is that Bush is going to indirectly be the cause of his defeat again, since his governance has been so bad that people are desperate for change. That desperation for change led to the Obama phenomenon, which swamped another candidate who waited a long time for a nomination she wanted so bad she was willing to make any compromise to get it: Hillary Clinton.
Fortunately for Obama, he was so new to the scene and such a long shot initially that he will ascend to the presidency without having made too many compromises along the way (though he has made some, especially over the last couple months). He hasn't had a long political career to spend wanting the presidency and systematically compromising his values in order to better position himself for a future run. There is evidence that he has thought about it; for instance, he has avoided taking positions on issues in the past, particularly with regard to expressing an opinion on controversial legal issues, most likely in order to prevent anyone from dredging up those opinions later. But still, for a major candidate he's coming in pretty clean, and it will be interesting to see if that helps him be effective in the presidency.
And to be sure, he'll need every advantage he can get. He will assume the presidency with 2 wars going, a serious recession in progress, a sea of red budget ink, and all kinds of potential crises, foreign and domestic, looming. I don't think he's the answer to every problem, but I'm hoping he's the answer to at least _some_ of the problems. And that's why he'll have my vote come Nov 4th.
Get out and vote, everyone!
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