Election '08 by Gus, Part 6

My prediction for today's primary: Clinton 54, Obama 46.

In the end, I think PA's demographics, which feature a sizable subgroup of older, white voters, overwhelmingly favor Clinton. Bill Kristol, who I think is intelligent, articulate, and wrong on virtually everything he has ever expressed an opinion about, said in a column about a month ago that Republicans should be careful, because the rift in the Democratic party is fundamentally not ideological; rather, it is generational.

That's why there's really very little difference between the two of them on policy issues. I think the biggest difference is healthcare, for which I am persuaded my Paul Krugman's analysis that Clinton's plan is better. I'm hopeful that Obama will win the nomination, then the presidency, and then promptly adopt Clinton's plan, since it is superior and he should be smart enough to realize that. I think he was very cautious with his proposal, as he has been on other issues, and now he's sort of stuck with it until he beats her. Moving to her plan before then would be interpreted as a sign of weakness.

But back to the generational thing- it's fascinating to watch this all unfold. Clinton represents the generation for whom the defining struggles of the day were racism and sexism. It's part of why Clinton is so fundamentally combative- she views the world, as I think many Boomers do, as a titanic struggle with itself over these issues. So, if you are someone who still sees the primary struggles with the world today being racism and sexism, you are far more likely to be drawn to her.

Obama represents the post-Boomer generations: mine, and the one after mine, which is at the beginning of its political life. I look around at all my friends who are married, and I see a lot more fathers helping out with childrearing/housework, mothers in management positions, etc. I think it is safe to say that from my generation onward, the idea that men and women are fundamentally equal is at the macro level a settled issue. The fight is over. Women won it.

Does that mean sexism is dead? No, of course not. Does that mean I think right now every father in America is doing 50% of the childrearing and housework? No, of course not. What I'm saying is, I can't find a single example of any married-with-kids couple of my generation that even comes close to the kind of split my mom and dad had. What I'm saying is, I can't think of anyone of my generation who really gives a two-penny damn whether their boss is male or female. I'll be the first to say we need more female politicians, more female CEO's, more female scientists, etc., but the conceptual debate is over. Now we're just trying to figure out how to engineer the reality.But that's a total change in society from top to bottom, and change at that scale simply takes time. There's no way around that fact.

For my generation onward, I also think the racism issue, at the macro level, is done. Minorities won it. In my generation, and especially in the next one, interracial dating is increasing, the number of children of mixed heritage is increasing, and again it's becoming harder to find people who really care that much what other people's race is.

Does that mean I think racism is dead? Hell, no. But the conceptual debate is over, and again, it's going to take time now to cycle the holdouts out of the system. There will always be some racists, and some sexists, just as there continue to exist today people who stubbornly insist that the world is flat. But the trend is positive, and I think it will pick up steam from this point on with each passing generation.

What it all means is, for people of my generation, and especially people of the next, they don't resonate with a lot of the Clinton pathos. They resonate a lot more with Obama, who speaks in a way that signals that he also sees those issues as settled. The issues that I think really resonate for people of my generation and the next are poverty and the environment, and to a lesser extent, how to fix healthcare, education, and social security, and how to exist in a rapidly globalizing world. Resolving those issues requires a change in focus from the defining issues of the Boomer generation, and also will require major changes in how we as Americans do things and think about things. And so the broad issue of change really resonates for these people, and they are overwhelmingly drawn to Obama.

I don't mean to imply that I think all Boomers go for Clinton, or that all people below a certain age go for Obama, but I think this framework explains why age is the single strongest predictor of Clinton/Obama preference (unless you are black). The fact that the Democratic campaign is so close suggests to me that we are near the tipping point, where the balance of power will start to shift away from Boomers and to the succeeding generations. I don't know if we're really there yet; Clinton may well win this one in the end. And if she does, I'll vote for her. Although she's not my preferred candidate, and I do think John McCain is a good man, and a true patriot, the differences between the two parties are too stark, and I will vote for Clinton without hesitation.

But another thing that worries me about Clinton is that her supporters, whether the ones that were with her from the beginning, or people like me, who will vote for her, however reluctantly, even she wins the nomination, are the same people who've voted for Democratic candidates in the last several elections. And we've seen what happens with that coalition. It loses. Or, depending on how you view the last couple of elections, it wins, but too narrowly to avoid losing anyway.

My worry is that Obama's supporters are heavily made up of people relatively new to political participation, either because of age, apathy, or both, and that a sizable number of these people are so invested in him personally that they will sit out the election rather than vote for Clinton. I think the number of Clinton supporters who will really sit out this election and potentially hand over yet another presidency to the Republicans is far lower. So to me, that's one more reason to root for Obama today. He is unlikely to win the PA primary, but if he can do better than the 54-46 prediction I'm publicly announcing here, then I think he will be tough for Clinton to beat in the endgame.

We owe the Boomer generation a great debt, for fighting it out amongst themselves and leading us to a place where I think we can make equality of race and sex overwhelmingly the cultural norm. So thank you Boomers, for a truly important contribution to our evolution as a society, and as a vision of true democracy. But now it's time to fight a whole new set of fights, and every 4 to 8 years we have to wait to really get started on those things is precious time lost. So let's elect Obama, and start making some progress. Can we do it?

Yes we can.